Romania - Furtuna maniei colective
- Masurile de austeritate din Romania sunt dure, chiar peste standardele actuale ale UE: 25% reducere a salariilor celor 1,4 milioane de angajati in sectorul public, 200.000 de locuri de munca din sectorul public desfiintare si 15% reducere din pensii si ajutor de somaj.
- Ministrii spun ca, fara luarea acestor masuri, deficitul va ajunge la peste 9% anul acesta si FMI ar fi nevoit sa retraca asistenta financiara, arata FT, care aminteste de faptul ca anul trecut am facut imprumutul de la FMI si UE de 20 de miliarde de euro.
- Ministrul de finante Sebastian Vladescu a spus ca guvernul "ar fi putut minti inca 6 luni", dsar s-ar fi aflat in situatia de a nu mai fi capabil sa plateasca salarii si pensii.
- Intr-o tara neobisnuita cu protestele de masa, politicile de austeritate - catalogate de opozitia social-democrata drept "genocid social" - au dezlantuit furtuna maniei publice care a amenintat sa rastoarne guvernul.
- Alegerea masurilor de austeritate care sa fie aplicate de guvern au aratat si tensiuni cu FMI, dupa ce acesta a aratat ca era in favoarea majorarii taxelor. Bucurestiul a respoins cresterea cotei unice de 16%, argumentand ca asta ar sufoca redresarea economica.
Alegeri dure, dar de neocolit, considera FT ca a trebuit sa ia Islanda. O crestere de 45% a taxelor scolare ar fi o pastila amara pentru orice student, din orice tara, insa in Islanda, unde universitatile de stat au cerut o asemenea crestere, impactul ar ptuea fi puternic.
Standardul educational de inalta calitate si serviciile publice in aceeasi masura par acum puse in pericol de batalia dura a tarii de a reduce deficitul bugetar care a depasit 9% din PIB anul trecut. Datoria publica a crescut si ea de la 56% din PIB inaintea crizei la mai mult de 100%.
Drept raspuns, guvernul islandez a adoptat un program de austeritate dur, sub supravegherea FMI. Guvernul a incercat sa protejeze serviciile de baza, dar nimeni nu e imun la reduceri. Pensiile, cheltuielile privind protectia sociala, bugetul educatiei si ajutoarele de somaj au fost reduse. Numeroase taxe au fost majorate, inclusiv cele pe venit. Somajul nu are un nivel mai mare decat in alte parti ale Europei, la aproximativ 8%, dar acel nivel este fara precedent. Totusi, Islanda a fost apreciata de autoritatile itnernationale pentru viteza si agresivitatea consolidarii fiscale.
O imagine completa asupra economiei islandeze am scris in urma vizitei mele acolo, de acum 3 saptamani. O puteti citi aici.
Spania - Marea reducere
Cand e vorba despre calmarea pietelor nelinistite de un deficit bugetar scapat de sub control, de un somaj de 20% si de o indatorare mare a sectorului privat, nu este timp sa amani niste masuri, sustine FT, si acest lucru s-a dovedit contraproductiv in cazul Spaniei.
Premierul spaniol, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a refuzat sa recunoasca faptul ca Spania e in criza pana cand a fost sufocat de dovezi in acest sens. Reactia lui initiala, un program keynesian menit sa reduca somajul si sa creasca consumul, a ridicat deficitul sectorului public de la un nivel extrem de mic, aproape de zero, la peste 11% din PIB in doi ani. Asa ca acum guvernul, de la inceputul anului, nu a facut decat sa incerce sa convinga pietele internationale ca poate aduce deficitul la 3% pana la sfarsitul lui 2013.
Planul initial de austeritate n-a fost suficient - cresterea varstei de pensionare de la 65 la 67 de ani, eliminarea unor scutiri de taxe, o reducere de 6 miliarde de euro in lucrarile publice si inghetarea angajarilor in sectorul public. Pentru luna viitoare a fost anuntata o majorare a TVA-ului cu 2 puncte procentuale.
Spania a luat alte masuri dupa ce criza din Grecia a iesit la iveala, iar ele au constat in 5% reducere a salariilor celor 2,8 milioane de angajati din sectorul public si inghetarea lor la acest nivel pentru un an. Ministrii au pierdut 155 din salariu. Pensiile au fost inghetate, a fost eliminata indemnizatia de primita la nasterea copilului de 2500 de euro si ajutorul extern a fost redus cu 600 de milioane de euro. S-au facut economii in sistemul sanitar, prin presiuni asupra furnizorilor de medicamente.
Masurile au nemultumit sindicatele, dar au fost apreciate de bruxelles si au calmat pietele internationale in ceea ce privea Spania.
Lituania
Premierul Andrius Kubilius a dat primul exemplu de austeritate, prin reducerea salariului cu 40%, ca masura in reducerea deficitului bugetar de 8% din PIB anul trecut, care trebuie sa ajunga la 3% in 2012. FT citeaza gluma sa potrivit careia premierul spune ca s-a consultat cu sotia sa in ceea ce privea scaderea, in spiritul consultarii "partenerilor sociali".
Lituania a redus anul trecut 8% din defict si a anuntat recent masuri similare pentru acest an. reducerile au rezultat din majorarea taxelor, 5% reducerea pensiilor si o scadere de 10% a salariilor din sectorul public.
Ireland: No Greek-style riots
Tackling the crisis head on
Even after slashing public sector pay, and cutting child benefit and other welfare programmes, Ireland is still set to borrow 11.6 per cent of national income this year - almost four times the 3 per cent deficit limit set under the EU's stability and growth pact. The deficit is set to return to 3 per cent by 2014.
The markets initially responded favourably, with Irish bond spreads narrowing. But with the eurozone debt crisis worsening since the start of the year, those gains have been largely given up, and Ireland is again seen as vulnerable to sovereign risk.
However, where Ireland has set itself apart from its troubled south European partners is in its readiness to tackle the crisis head on. And this has been largely achieved without triggering Greek-style social unrest.
Arguably the bulk of the heavy lifting has now been achieved, with around €12bn of adjustments made over the past two years - either spending cuts or tax rises - including €4bn in the current year. This amounts to a fiscal consolidation equivalent to 5 per cent of GDP.
The main burden of adjustment has fallen on public spending rather than tax. Pay for everyone in the public sector has been slashed, and state workers have also been forced to make increased pension contributions - in effect a further reduction in take-home pay. On the welfare side, Ireland has cut rates, rather than trying to means-test universal benefits.
Greece: Bail-out stalls default
The grim face of consolidation
If one country has come to represent the grim face of budget consolidation it is Greece. The socialist government last month agreed to a €30bn, three-year austerity package in return for a €110bn bail-out by its eurozone partners and the IMF in order to avert a looming default.
A frontloaded package aims at reducing the budget deficit by almost 10 percentage points of gross domestic product by 2014 with more than half the adjustment coming this year.
The social costs are heavy. Public sector workers will see their incomes fall by up to 20 per cent this year. In the private sector, severance pay will be drastically cut. Reform of the crumbling pay-as-you-go pension system will raise the retirement age from 58 to 65 for men and women, and reduce the average pension from 90 per cent to less than 70 per cent of final salary.
Yet for now, at least, it appears to be producing the desired effect. Greece breezed through the first test of its three-year deficit-cutting programme last week, with monitors from the EU and IMF saying they were cautiously optimistic about progress.
A 10 per cent reduction in budget expenditure in the first five months, together with a 6 per cent increase in VAT receipts, indicated the country's fiscal consolidation was on track, the officials said.
The official jobless rate reached 11.7 per cent in the first quarter, the highest in a decade. But the real rate is believed to be much higher as many women and entrants to the workforce fail to register as unemployed.
US: Less pressure to cut
Luxury of having a dominant currency
The dollar's place at the heart of the global financial system means that the US has the luxury of tightening fiscal policy at its own pace. While the US has a bigger fiscal deficit than the eurozone - the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe expects it to be 10.7 per cent of output in 2010 - the Greek crisis has prompted a flight to, rather than from, the safety of the dollar and US Treasuries.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries has fallen from 4 per cent at the start of April to 3.3 per cent today. As a result, Washington is feeling little market pressure to cut its deficit, and few economists expect that to change as long as US finances look healthy relative to other countries.
Instead of bond market fears, the US has an intense political debate about deficits and whether to spend more on fiscal stimulus. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has talked of "spending fatigue". His Republican opponents have set up "YouCut" - a weekly public vote on which spending to cut in the style of American Idol.
The main effort at deficit control in President Barack Obama's budget - not yet passed by Congress - is a three-year freeze on spending not related to defence or entitlements such as social security. But defence, entitlements and debt interest make up more than 80 per cent of spending. Meanwhile, many Republicans have signed a pledge never to raise any taxes.
"In case after case there's an expression of concern about deficits and debt but an unwillingness to act on that," says James Horney, director of federal fiscal policy at the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities.
An ageing population will make it hard to cut social security spending, and there is little appetite to revisit healthcare after the gruelling battle over reform. That leaves tax rises - which even Democrats are unlikely to push for in an election year.
As remarca ceva: tarile aflate pe lista sunt cele despre care s-a scris si s-a spus - in ultimii doi ani sau un an si jumatate - ca sunt profund afectate de criza. Romania este printre ele. Numai ca ele au inceput inca de anul trecut sa ia masuri dure si sa incetineasca prabusirea sau, ajunse pe fundul prapastiei, sa incerce o redresare.
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